Your Favorite Performances from 1930 to the present

[Detective Jim McLeod]

My 2023 choices-

Actor- Jeffrey Wright in American Fiction
Actress- Leonie Benesch in The Teacher's Lounge
Supporting Actor- Willem Dafoe in Poor Things
Supporting Actress- Da vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers

[jamesjazzguitar]

Test post to see if I get a SQL error due to this tread being created by a users who it appears all post were deleted (like the 1st post at this thread).

[skimpole]

Ok, most of my posts discussing hypothetical oscars going back to 1955 have been deleted. But rather than start all over again, let's go to 1986. Here are the Academy's choices:

ACTOR

Dexter Gordon – ‘Round Midnight
Bob Hoskins – Mona Lisa
William Hurt – Children of a Lesser God
Paul Newman – The Color of Money
James Woods – Salvador

ACTRESS

Jane Fonda – The Morning After
Marlee Matlin – Children of a Lesser God
Sissy Spacek – Crimes of the Heart
Kathleen Turner – Peggy Sue Got Married
Sigourney Weaver – Aliens

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Tom Berenger – Platoon
Michael Caine – Hannah and Her Sisters
Willem Dafoe – Platoon
Denholm Elliott – A Room with a View
Dennis Hopper – Hoosiers

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Tess Harper – Crimes of the Heart
Piper Laurie – Children of a Lesser God
Mary Elizabeth Mastrantonio – The Color of Money
Maggie Smith – A Room with a View
Dianne Wiest – Hannah and Her Sisters

And here are my choices

ACTOR

Erland Josephson, The Sacrifice
Michael Rooker, Henry: Portrait of a Serial Killer
Kyle McLachlan, Blue Velvet
Tom Waits, Down by Law
Robert De Niro, The Mission

ACTRESS

Sigourney Weaver, Aliens
Marie Riviere, Summer/The Green Ray
Patsy Kensit, Absolute Beginners
Tracy Camilla Jones, She's Gotta Have it
Isabella Rossellini, Blue Velvet

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Dennis Hopper, Blue Velvet
Michael Caine, Hannah and Her Sisters
Roberto Benigni, Down by Law
Lance Henriksen, Aliens
Dean Stockwell, Blue Velvet

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Laura Dern, Blue Velvet
Dianne Wiest, Hannah and Her Sisters
Tilda Swinton, Caravaggio
Juliette Binoche, Mauvais Sang
Meg Ryan, Top Gun

My nominees for best picture are

Aliens
Blue Velvet
Henry Portrait of a Serial Killer
The Mission
The Sacrifice

So, if the Academy had to choose from my choices, whom would they choose? The Mission may be the most conventional of a rather violent selection of nominees. But DeNiro has already won at least twice before. It's possible Josephson has a shot, since a gesture towards the now exiled, and now dead Tarkovsky might be in order. For Actress, Weaver was the only one the Academy actually nominated in the real world, and it's reasonable to think they'd choose her. The Academy also choose Caine and Wiest in the real world, and they had some critical buy-in as well.

[skimpole]

A reminder of my choices for 2021

Actor

Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive my Car
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
Jack Lowden, Benediction

Runner-ups: Adam Driver (Annette), Anders Danielsen Lie (The Worst Person in the World), Gaby Hoffmann (C’mon C’mon), Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Benjamin Voisin (Lost Illusions), Dario Argento (Vortex), Oscar Isaac (The Card Counter), Clint Eastwood (Cry Macho), Bradley Cooper (Nightmare Alley), Simon Rex (Red Rocket), Nicolas Cage (Pig), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Jason Statham (Wrath of Man), Sam Ashraf (The Innocents), Danny McBride (The Mitchells vs. the Machines), Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!), Leon Lucev (Murina), Gabriele Silli (The Tale of King Crab), Yuri Borisov (Compartment No. 6), Filippo Scotti (The Hand of God), Adam Driver (House of Gucci),

Actress

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Renate Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Tessa Thompson, Passing

Runner-ups: Agathe Rousselle (Titane), Anamaria Vartolomei (Happening), Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter), Josephine Sanz (Petite Maman),* Natasa Stork (Preparations to be Together for an Unknown Period of Time), Katia Pascariu (Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn), Tilda Swinton (Memoria), Francois Lebrun (Vortex), Kotone Furukawa (Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy), Taylour Paige (Zola), Katsuki Mori (Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy), Rachel Zegler (West Side Story), Virginie Efiria (Benedetta), Stephanie Beatriz (Encanto), Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos), Gracija Filipovic (Murina), Anna Taylor-Joy (Last Night in Soho), Rakel Lenora Flottum (The Innocents), Gemma Chan (The Eternals), Seida Haarla (Compartment no. 6), Leslie Grace (In the Heights), Thomasin McKenzie (Last Night in Soho), Lea Seydoux (France), Salome Dewaels (Lost Illusions), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), Emilia Jones (CODA), Alicia Vikander (The Green Knight), Ani Karseladze (What do we see when we look up at the sky?)

Supporting Actor

Peter Capaldi, Benediction
Vincent Lindon, Titane
Masaki Okada, Drive my Car
Kodi Smith-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Jeffrey Wright, The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun

Runner-ups: Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog), Rayan Sarlak (Hit the Road), Adrien Brody (The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun), Willem Dafoe (The Card Counter), Jeremy Irvine (Benediction), Troy Kotsur (CODA), Xavier Dolan (Lost Illusions), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Herbert Nordum (The Worst Person in the World), Matt Smith (Last Night in Soho), Lambert Wilson (Benedetta), Vincent Lacoste (Lost Illusions), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Benecio del Toro (The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun), Kumail Nanjiani (The Eternals), Simon Russell Beale (Benediction), Simon Helberg (Annette), Ethan Darbone (Red Rocket), Bill Murray (The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun), Gerard Depardieu (Lost Illusions), David Alvarez (West Side Story), Andre Holland (Passing), Oscar Isaac (Dune), Alexander Skarsgard (Passing), Ralph Ineson (The Green Knight), Terrence Stamp (Last Night in Soho),

Supporting Actress

Reika Kirishima, Drive my Car
Toko Miura, Drive my Car
Cate Blanchett. Nightmare Alley
Ruth Negga, Passing
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Runner-ups: Kathryn Hunter (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Marion Cotillard (Annette), Gabrielle Sanz (Petite Maman), Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter), Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth), Rooney Mara (Nightmare Alley), Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Frances McDormand (The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun), Luisa Ranieri (The Hand of God), Lea Seydoux (The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun), Cecile de France (Lost Illusions), Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up), Christine Ebersole (Licorice Pizza), Marlee Matlin (CODA), Milena Smit (Parallel Mothers), Bree Elrod (Red Rocket), Diana Rigg (Last Night in Soho), Alva Brymso Ramstad (The Innocents), Rita Moreno (West Side Story), Jeanne Balibar (Lost Illusions), Suzanna Son (Red Rocket), Tilda Swinton (The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun), Brenda Deiss (Red Rocket), Natalia Traven (Cry Macho),

[skimpole]

And a reminder of my choices for 2022:

Actor

Park Hae-Il, Decision to Leave
Viggo Mortenson, Crimes of the Future
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Marin Grigoire, R.M.N.
Vincent Lindon, Both Sides of the Blade

Runner-ups: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Banks Repeta* (Armageddon Time), Jack Black (Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood), Joe Alwyn (Stars at Noon), Pablo Schils (Tori and Lokita), Rory Kinnear (Men), Idris Elba (Three Thousand Year of Longing), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives out Mystery), Ram Charan (RRR), Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Dali Benssalah (Athena), Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Daniel Giminez Cacho (Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hokuta Matsumura (Suzume), Daniel Kaluuya (Nope), Bill Nighy (Living)

Actress

Cate Blanchett, Tar
Lea Seydoux, One Fine Morning
Tang Wei, Decision to Leave
Ji Min-Park, Return to Seoul
Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Runner-ups: Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere all at Once), Margaret Qualley (Stars at Noon), Juliette Binoche (Both Sides of the Blade), Frankie Corio (Aftersun), Mbundu Joely (Tori and Lokita), Tilda Swinton (Three Thousand Years of Longing), Lea Seydoux (Crimes of the Future), Nanoka Hara (Suzume), Rosalie Chiang (Turning Red), Aubrey Plaza (Emily the Criminal), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Florence Pugh (Don’t Worry Darling), Vickie Krieps (Corsage), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Andrea Risborough (To Leslie), Jessie Buckley (Men), Zoe Kravitz (Kimi), Amandla Stenberg, Maria Balkova (Bodies Bodies Bodies),

Supporting Actor

Edward Norton, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere all at Once

Runner-ups: Pascal Gregory (One Fine Morning), Melvil Poupaud (One Fine Morning), Go Kyung-pyo (Decision to Leave), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jaylin Webb (Armageddon Time), Gregoire Colin (Both Sides of the Blade), Don McKellar (Crimes of the Future), Zethphan Smith-Gneist (Tar), Stephen Lang (Avatar: the way of Water), Alban Ukaj (Tori and Lokita), Dave Bautista (Glass Onion: a Knives out Mystery), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Oh Kwang Rock (Return to Seoul), Steven Yeun (Nope), Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time), Colin Farrell (The Batman), Marc Maron (To Leslie),

Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, Armageddon Time
Keke Palmer, Nope
Judith State, R.M.N.
Lee Jung-hyun, Decision to Leave
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

Runner-ups: Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives out Mystery), Marcina Barladeneau (R.M.N.), Kate Hudson (Glass Onion: A Knives out Mystery), Noemie Merlant (Tar), Kim Shun-young (Decision to Leave), Sandra Oh (Turning Red), Julia Butters (The Fabelmans), Eri Fukatsu (Suzume), Hong Chau (The Whale), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere all at Once), Maitreyi Ramakrishnan (Turning Red), Nina Hoss (Tar), Gina Gershon (Emily the Criminal), Isabelle Huppert (Eo), Krisen Stewart (Crimes of the Future), Lee Edy (Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere all at Once), Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

[skimpole]

And if we had to include two of the Academy's choices for 1986, how would that change things?

Picture: Platoon
Actor: You know what? I'm going to choose Gordon and Hoskins, though I've never actually seen the movies they're in. But this doesn't change things
Actress: Turner, but this doesn't change things
S. Actor: Dafoe, doesn't change things
S. Actress: Smith, doesn't change things.

[skimpole]

Now it's 1987. Let's look at the Academy's nominees:

ACTOR

Michael Douglas – Wall Street
William Hurt – Broadcast News
Marcello Mastroianni – Dark Eyes
Jack Nicholson – Ironweed
Robin Williams – Good Morning, Vietnam

ACTRESS

Cher – Moonstruck
Glenn Close – Fatal Attraction
Holly Hunter – Broadcast News
Sally Kirkland – Anna
Meryl Streep – Ironweed

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Albert Brooks – Broadcast News
Sean Connery – The Untouchables
Morgan Freeman – Street Smart
Vincent Gardenia – Moonstruck
Denzel Washington – Cry Freedom

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Norma Aleandro – Gaby – A True Story
Anne Archer – Fatal Attraction
Olympia Dukakis – Moonstruck
Anne Ramsey – Throw Momma from the Train
Ann Sothern – The Whales of August

And here are my choices:

ACTOR

Babek Ahmed Pour, Where is the Friend's Home
Mickey Rourke, Angel Heart
Christian Bale, Empire of the Sun
Anton Glanzelius, My Life as a Dog
Bruno Ganz, Wings of Desire

ACTRESS

Holly Hunter, Raising Arizona
Christine Lahti, Housekeeping
Anjelica Huston, The Dead
Lindsay Crouse, House of Games
Lillian Gish, The Whales of August

SUPPORTING ACTOR

R. Lee Emery, Full Metal Jacket
Robert De Niro, Angel Heart/The Untouchables
Sean Connery, The Untouchables
Mandy Patinkin, The Princess Bride
Peter Falk, Wings of Desire/The Princess Bride

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Meg Ryan, Innerspace
Lisa Bonet, Angel Heart
Melinda Kinnaman, My Life as a Dog
Sammi Davis, Hope and Glory
Olympia Dukakis, Moonstruck

My nominees for best picture are

Angel Heart
The Empire of the Sun
Hope and Glory
The Last Emperor
The Princess Bride

So if the Academy has to choose from my choices, who would they choose? I imagine they would be startled by my choices for best actor, involving three children for best actor, two of them in foreign languages. I think they might choose Bruno Ganz, since The Wings of Desire is the sort of movie the Academy might admire itself for choosing, especially if they had no alternatives. Since both critics and audiences were equivocal in their admiration for The Empire of the Sun, that would hurt Bale's chances, the most likely runner-up. As for Actress, I think I already gave Gish an oscar for The Night of the Hunter. And while the critics groups preferred Broadcast News, I suspect they would support Hunter in Raising Arizona. For supporting actor and actress, Connery and Dukakis won in reality. Connery would probably win here, though Dukakis might be hurt by the lack of other nominations for Moonstruck, and so Ryan could sneak to an upset victory.

[skimpole]

And if we had to include two of the Academy's choices?

Picture: No Change
Actor: Add Douglas and Williams. Douglas wins.
Actress: Add Cher and Hunter (Broadcast News). Cher wins
S. Actor: Add Brooks. Connery still wins.
S. Actress: Add Ramsay. With Cher nominated, Dukakis is now more likely to win.

[skimpole]

Now it's 1988. Here are the Academy's choices:

ACTOR

Gene Hackman – Mississippi Burning
Tom Hanks – Big
Dustin Hoffman – Rain Man
Edward James Olmos – Stand and Deliver
Max von Sydow – Pelle the Conqueror

ACTRESS

Glenn Close – Dangerous Liaisons
Jodie Foster – The Accused
Melanie Griffith – Working Girl
Meryl Streep – A Cry in the Dark
Sigourney Weaver – Gorillas in the Mist

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Alec Guinness – Little Dorrit
Kevin Kline – A Fish Called Wanda
Martin Landau – Tucker The Man and His Dream
River Phoenix – Running on Empty
Dean Stockwell – Married to the Mob

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Joan Cusack – Working Girl
Geena Davis – The Accidental Tourist
Frances McDormand – Mississippi Burning
Michelle Pfeiffer – Dangerous Liaisons
Sigourney Weaver – Working Girl

And here are my choices:

ACTOR

John Cleese, A Fish Called Wanda
Bernard-Pierre Donadieu, The Vanishing
Jeremy Irons, Dead Ringers
Robert De Niro, Midnight Run
Daniel Day-Lewis, The Unbearable Lightness of Being

ACTRESS

Isabelle Huppert, Story of Women
Jamie Lee Curtis, A Fish Called Wanda
Glenn Close, Dangerous Liaisons
Susan Sarandon, Bull Durham
Juliette Binoche, The Unbearable Lightness of Being

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kevin Kline, A Fish Called Wanda
Pete Postelthwaite, Distant Voices, Still Lives
Michael Palin, A Fish Called Wanda
Max von Sydow, Pelle the Conqueror
Alan Rickman, Die Hard

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lena Olin, The Unbearable Lightness of Being
Michelle Pfeiffer, Dangerous Liaisons
Freda Dowie, Distant Voices, Still Lives
Lorraine Ashbourne, Distant Voices, Still Lives
Barbara Hershey, The Last Temptation of Christ

My nominees for best picture are

A Fish Called Wanda
The Grave of the Fireflies
Hotel Terminus
My Neighbor Totoro
The Vanishing

So who would the Academy choose if they had to choose from my choices? For Actor, they would choose Cleese, since A Fish Called Wanda, as the one English language nominee, would be the front-runner for Best Picture. De Niro has already won, The Vanishing is too foreign, The Unbearable Lightness of Being is too obscure and Dead Ringers is too weird. For Actress, Close would likely win, as the one nominee the Academy actually wanted, and for the same reason Pfeiffer would win best supporting Actress. And Kline would win Supporting Actor, as he did in real life.

[skimpole]

And if we had to include two of the Academy's choices?

Picture: Dangerous Liaisons and maybe Mississippi Burning?
Actor: Hanks, no change
Actress: Streep, no change
S. Actor: Phoenix, no change
S. Actress: Davis, but I think Pfeiffer still wins, since Dangerous Liaisons now has a best picture nomination and The Accidental Tourist doesn't

[skimpole]

Now it's 1989. Here are the Academy's choices:

ACTOR

Kenneth Branagh – Henry V
Tom Cruise – Born on the Fourth of July
Daniel Day Lewis – My Left Foot
Morgan Freeman – Driving Miss Daisy
Robin Williams – Dead Poets Society

ACTRESS

Isabelle Adjani – Camille Claudel
Pauline Collins – Shirley Valentine
Jessica Lange – Music Box
Michelle Pfeiffer – The Fabulous Baker Boys
Jessica Tandy – Driving Miss Daisy

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Danny Aiello – Do the Right Thing
Dan Aykroyd – Driving Miss Daisy
Marlon Brando – A Dry White Season
Martin Landau – Crimes and Misdemeanors
Denzel Washington – Glory

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Brenda Fricker – My Left Foot
Anjelica Huston – Enemies, A Love Story
Lena Olin – Enemies, A Love Story
Julia Roberts – Steel Magnolias
Dianne Wiest – Parenthood

And here are my choices:

ACTOR

Tom Cruise, Born on the Fourth of July
Kenneth Branagh, Henry V
John Cusack, Say Anything
Martin Landau, Crimes and Misdemeanors
Tony Leung, City of Sadness

ACTRESS

Dorota Segda, My Twentieth Century
Jessica Lange, Music Box
Jessica Tandy, Driving Miss Daisy
Ione Skye, Say Anything
Emma Thompson, The Tall Guy

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sean Connery, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade
Morgan Freeman, Glory
Derek Jacobi, Henry V
John Mahoney, Say Anything
Danny Aiello, Do the Right Thing

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lena Olin, Enemies, A Love Story
Anjelica Huston, Enemies, A Love Story
Emma Thompson, Henry V
Mia Farrow, Crimes and Misdemeanors
Joan Cusack, Say Anything

And my choices for best picture are

Born on the Fourth of July
Crimes and Misdemeanors
Enemies, A Love Story
Henry V
Homework

So who would the Academy choose if they had to chose from my choices? For Actor, Cruise had the most critical support of the nominees. The only question is whether Stone's radicalism would hamper Born's chances. Given the superior studio backing, the Academy would probably choose Cruise. Tandy won in reality, and would probably win here, even if Driving didn't get a best picture nomination (none of the other nominees did). For supporting actor, Aiello is the one supporting actor nominee to be nominated, and he got more critical attention than the others. For supporting actress, Huston would probably win over Olin. Little would change if we had to include two of the Academy's choices, since they were already chosen in the four acting categories. The only difference is best picture, where it would either between Driving Miss Daisy or My Left Foot.

[skimpole]

Now it's 1990, here are the Academy's choices:

ACTOR

Kevin Costner – Dances With Wolves
Robert De Niro – Awakenings
Gerard Depardieu – Cyrano de Bergerac
Richard Harris – The Field
Jeremy Irons – Reversal of Fortune

ACTRESS

Kathy Bates – Misery
Anjelica Huston – The Grifters
Julia Roberts – Pretty Woman
Meryl Streep – Postcards from the Edge
Joanne Woodward – Mr. & Mrs. Bridge

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bruce Davison – Longtime Companion
Andy Garcia – The Godfather, Part III
Graham Greene – Dances With Wolves
Al Pacino – Dick Tracy
Joe Pesci – Good Fellas

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Annette Bening – The Grifters
Lorraine Bracco – Good Fellas
Whoopi Goldberg – Ghost
Diane Ladd – Wild at Heart
Mary McDonnell – Dances With Wolves

And here are my choices:

ACTOR

Jeremy Irons, Reversal of Fortune
Gian Maria Volonte, Open Doors
Gabriel Byrne, Miller's Crossing
Tim Robbins, Jacob's Ladder
Al Pacino, The Godfather Part III

ACTRESS

Julie Bataille, C'est La Vie/La Baule-Les-Pins
Lena Stolze, The Nasty Girl
Anne Parillaud, La Femme Nikita
Julia Roberts, Pretty Woman
Anjelica Huston, The Grifters

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Danny Glover, To Sleep with Anger
Joe Pesci, Goodfellas
John Turturro, Miller's Crossing
Raul Julia, Presumed Innocent
Robert De Niro, Goodfellas

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Lorraine Bracco, Goodfellas
Glenn Close, Reversal of Fortune
Nathalie Baye, C'est la Vie/La Baule-Les-Pins
Maggie Cheung, Days of Being Wild
Mary Alice, To Sleep with Anger

And my choices for best picture are

C'est la Vie/La Baule-Les-Pins
Goodfellas
Jacob's Ladder
Miller's Crossing
Reversal of Fortune

So who would the Academy choose if they had to choose from my choices? Since Irons won in reality, now improves matters with a best picture nomination and faces none of the Academy's other choices, he would win. He also benefits from getting a nomination two years earlier. For Actress I think Roberts win, since Huston has already won twice for supporting actress. For supporting actor Pesci is the clear consensus choice, and I suspect Bracco would benefit over the comatose Close and three more obscure nominees. Goodfellas may even be the likely Best Picture winner this years.